EU capitals revive the plan to fund Ukraine with frozen Russian assets

In January 2026 the Commission proposed a regulation establishing a Ukraine Support Loan for 2026 and 2027: roughly €90 billion in EU assistance, structured as a loan to be repaid from reparations owed by Russia rather than as grants. In late August, member states revived the harder version of the plan — using the immobilised Russian central bank assets held in the EU to fund it directly.

The legal construction matters for who carries the risk. If reparations never materialise and the asset route is blocked, the loan converts into an obligation backed by the EU budget, which is funded by national contributions on a gross-national-income key. The Netherlands is an above-average net contributor, so its share of any shortfall is larger than its population share.

This is exactly the kind of cost that never appears on a household bill and still lands on households. On this site it is modelled as a contingent liability spread over the years in which it would be recognised, not as a one-off headline number.

The Ukraine line in the ledger also includes the parts that are already certain: reception and integration of displaced Ukrainians, higher defence procurement, and the energy market repricing that followed the invasion.